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Impact Factor:0.635 | Ranking:Political Science 100 out of 163
Source:2016 Release of Journal Citation Reports, Source: 2015 Web of Science Data

Pre-election polling and sequential elections

  1. Patrick Hummel
    1. Yahoo! Research, Berkeley, USA, phummel{at}yahoo-inc.com

Abstract

I consider a model in which the winner of a primary election faces a third candidate in a general election immediately thereafter. Prior to the primary election, there is a pre-election poll on how voters would vote in a hypothetical general election between one of the candidates in the primary election and the third candidate. I illustrate that voters have an incentive to misrepresent their voting intentions in the pre-election poll in order to influence voter beliefs about candidate electability in the general election and possibly cause voters to vote differently in the primary election.

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